A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
